MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0039
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0210 AM CST MON JAN 26 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL/FL PNHDL AND SWRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 260810Z - 261045Z
   
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH
   LATER THIS MORNING.
   
   OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA
   HAVE INDICATED A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   FROM SE OF CSG SWWD TO AROUND PNS. LOCAL VWPS AND RUC DIAGNOSTIC
   FIELDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN A BROAD WAA REGIME
   WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST ETA
   AND RUC GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ
   JET AXIS AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER ERN TX/ TRANSLATES EWD
   ACROSS THE NWRN GULF COAST. 
   
   07Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS /CHARACTERIZED BY
   DEWPOINTS OF 65-70F/ FROM THE FL PNHDL COAST SWD/SWWD TO BUOYS
   42040/42039. INCREASING SLY WINDS BENEATH DEVELOPING LLJ AXIS SHOULD
   EXPEDITE NWD ADVECTION OF THIS AIRMASS ACROSS THE FL PNHDL INTO SRN
   AL/SWRN GA THROUGH 26/12Z. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE COUPLED WITH
   COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH
   SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES
   APPROACHING 500 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONCURRENTLY INCREASE AS
   75-85KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK EMERGES FROM THE TROUGH BASE OVER THE
   CNTRL GULF COAST...RESULTING IN WIND PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. MOREOVER...LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC
   CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN
   CURRENT LCL HEIGHTS OF 700-900M AND 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF 150-250
   M2/S2.
   
   RADAR TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND IF TSTMS CONTINUE TO
   STRENGTHEN...A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 4
   HOURS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 01/26/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   30458807 31258781 31748690 31898608 31898553 31848497
   31508410 31018392 30078424 29548523 29528689