MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0050
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN OH...WRN NY AND NWRN PA
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 
   
   VALID 270836Z - 271230Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN -- SOMETIMES ENHANCED BY EMBEDDED TSTMS -- WILL MOVE
   NEWD FROM CRAWFORD/ERIE/VENANGO COUNTIES PA...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
   LE.  NY COUNTIES MOST AFFECTED SHOULD BE FROM CATTARAUGUS TO ORLEANS
   AND WWD...INCLUDING BUF AREA.  SOME SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
   GREATEST HAZARD WILL ARISE FROM FREEZING RAIN RATES LOCALLY REACHING
   NEAR .75 INCH/HOUR IN HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE CORES.
   
   PRONOUNCED PRECIP PLUME WITH WIDELY SCATTERED EMBEDDED TSTMS IS
   MOVING NEWD 25-35 KT ACROSS PORTIONS NERN OH...NWRN-MOST PA...ERN
   LE..AND ISTHMUS OF ONT W OF BUF.  THIS PRECIP WILL OVERTAKE
   SUBFREEZING SFC AIR AND REMAIN LIQUID LONG ENOUGH TO SPREAD SFC
   ICING THREAT ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF WRN NY.  SFC
   MESOANALYSIS INDICATES FREEZING LINE FROM MGW 25 W HLG 30 WSW ERI AS
   OF 8Z. EXPECT CONTINUED REGIME OF
   1. LOW LEVEL WAA AND
   2. DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF SENSIBLE HEAT VIA RAIN FROM SUPERFREEZING
   LAYER ALOFT...
   EACH OF WHICH SHOULD OFFSET EVAPORATIONAL COOLING ENOUGH TO DRIFT
   FREEZING LINE NEWD TOWARD OH/PA BORDER.  STILL...PLUME OF ISENTROPIC
   LIFT AND NEAR-850 MB FRONTOGENESIS SUPPORTING PRECIP PLUME IS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTENSE ENOUGH FOR FREEZING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO
   CROSS AREA FROM SW.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE 2500-4000 FT
   DEEP SUPERFREEZING LAYER ALOFT FROM BUF SSWWD...BECOMING MORE
   SHALLOW EWD TO ROC...AND ELEVATED MUCAPE UP TO 100 J/KG.  AS PRECIP
   PLUME MOVES OVER STILL DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER OF COLD AIR FROM ROC
   AREA EWD...TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 01/27/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
   41378090 42188050 42877889 43517912 43577769 43087775
   41907880 40978069