MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0640 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN OH AND WRN PA...NRN PANHANDLE OF WV
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 
   
   VALID 271240Z - 271615Z
   
   100-125 NM WIDE BROKEN BAND OF PRECIP -- CONTAINING SCATTERED
   EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS -- WILL MOVE NEWD 30-35 KT
   ACROSS REGION TROUGH 15Z.  E OF SFC FREEZING LINE TO NEAR AN LBE-ERI
   LINE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN RATES .1-.25 INCH HOUR AND
   LOCALIZED/BRIEF CORES WITH .5 INCH/HOUR RATES. 
   
   12Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FREEZING LINE MGW 15 S HLG 30 S CAK 40 NNW
   YNG.  EXPECT LOW LEVEL WAA AND VERTICAL SENSIBLE HEAT FLUXES TO
   SHIFT FREEZING ISOTHERM NEWD 15-20 KT -- BUT NOT AS FAST AS MOVEMENT
   OF PRECIP PLUME.  RESULT WILL BE FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO RAIN OVER
   NRN WV PANHANDLE AND OVER ERN OH...EXCEPT EXTREME ERN OH COUNTIES
   BORDERING PA.  IN PA FROM PIT NWD...PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN FREEZING
   RAIN FROM 1330-14Z ONSET THROUGH AROUND 1530-16Z.  LOW LEVEL WAA
   ASSOCIATED WITH 40-45 KT LLJ WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE LOW-MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ABOVE COLD BOUNDARY LAYER...AND HORIZONTALLY AHEAD OF
   PRECIP PLUME.  THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED MUCAPE UP TO 50 J/KG WITH
   ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.  THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL FAVOR SFC
   ICING WITH 2500-4000 FT DEEP SUPERFREEZING LAYER ABOVE ARCTIC SFC
   AIR.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 01/27/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
   39918019 39968080 40558132 41628126 41888067 42247983
   41697951 40707925 39777953