MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0058
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0219 AM CST SUN FEB 01 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...OK PANHANDLE...AND WRN KS THRU N-CENTRAL KS
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 010819Z - 011245Z
   
   LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE ERN OK PANHANDLE...SWRN AND
   CENTRAL KS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW DURING 0815-1200Z PERIOD. BANDS OF
   HVY SNOW WITH SW-NE ORIENTATION ARE POSSIBLE STARTING IN 12-15Z
   PERIOD WITH 1"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA.
   
   AT 0745Z...IR IMAGERY REVEALED MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NEWD OUT OF
   NRN NM...AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE ADDITIONAL UPPER JET AXIS EXTENDING
   FROM THE WRN GREAT BASIN SEWD INTO AZ ENTERING TROUGH BASE. AT THE
   SURFACE...1002MB CYCLONE WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF LBB...WITH STRONG
   FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS WRN INTO N-CENTRAL
   OK. SURFACE FREEZING LINE WAS LOCATED FROM 25E HUT TO NEAR P28 TO 10
   S GAG. SHALLOW CLOUD LAYERS IN FRONTAL ZONE...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS
   ABOVE -5C...WERE SUPPORTING AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE NERN
   TX PANHANDLE ACROSS FAR NWRN OK INTO CENTRAL KS. LIGHT SNOW WAS
   OCCURRING ALONG AND WEST OF 700MB TROUGH AXIS ACROSS FAR WRN
   KS...WHERE MID-LEVEL ASCENT IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER.
   
   THE 01/06Z RUC INDICATES THAT 850-700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TIGHTEN
   IN A SW-NE AXIS FROM SWRN KS TO N-CENTRAL KS THROUGH
   18Z...CONSISTENT WITH AREA OF CONVERGENCE/DEFORMATION IN 01/07Z
   PROFILER PLOTS. INDUCED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...COMBINED WITH
   STRENGTHENING 500-300MB MEAN DIVERGENCE WITH APPROACHING JET EXIT
   REGION...SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID INCREASE AND INTENSIFICATION OF
   PRECIPITATION ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA BY 01/12Z. LIGHT FREEZING
   DRIZZLE SHOULD BECOME MODERATE TO ISOLATED HVY SNOW AS DEEPER CLOUD
   DEPTHS AND STRONGER UVV ARE REALIZED AROUND 12Z. RAGGED IR
   APPEARANCE OF TROUGH SUGGESTS ABSENCE OF MOISTURE...LIKELY
   INFLUENCED BY NEARBY UPPER VORT IN THE N-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND
   LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TRAJECTORIES NEAR THE TX COAST.
   HOWEVER...FAVORABLE DYNAMIC FORCING AND LARGE SNOW/WATER RATIOS WITH
   TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S SHOULD OVERCOME MINIMAL GULF
   MOISTURE AND BE SUFFICIENT FOR A BAND OF 1"/HR SNOWFALL IN LBL TO
   RSL CORRIDOR BEGINNING DURING 12-15Z TIME FRAME.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 02/01/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...
   
   38329806 37729862 37469908 37079955 36650050 37320184
   39649979 39919862 39639778 38799759