MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0059
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0405 AM CST SUN FEB 01 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CENTRAL KS...AND FAR WRN MO INCLUDING KC METRO
   AREA
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 
   
   VALID 011005Z - 011430Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF E-CENTRAL KS AND FAR WRN
   MO INCLUDING KC METRO DURING 10-18Z PERIOD. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF
   0.05-0.10"/HR APPEAR LIKELY. 
   
   AT 0930Z...AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WERE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY BETWEEN
   ICT-CNU AND NORTH OF EMP. NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET...WITH 1KM WINDS
   AROUND 40KT ON LAMONT AND HASKELL PROFILERS...WAS GENERATING STRONG
   CONVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AIDING IN DEVELOPMENT OF
   ABOVE MENTIONED PRECIPITATION FORMATION. SNOW IS INITIALLY POSSIBLE
   ALONG KS TURNPIKE AND I-70...BUT TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD FREEZING
   RAIN DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. 
   
   ETA AND RUC GUIDANCE SUGGEST PRESENT WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
   CONTINUE...WITH PRECIPITATION AREA EXPANDING AND MOVING NEWD INTO KC
   METRO AREA BETWEEN 11-13Z. SOME WARMING OF VERTICAL COLUMN IS LIKELY
   IN VICINITY OF 850MB...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING PRIMARILY
   FREEZING RAIN ACROSS E-CENTRAL KS NEWD INTO KC METRO/FAR WRN MO WITH
   ABOVE FREEZING ZONE ALOFT. RUC SPREADS PLUME OF 7-7.5C/KM LAPSE
   RATES IN 700-500MB LAYER NEWD INTO ERN KS DURING NEXT 6-9 HRS. THIS
   SHOULD RESULT IN SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH HEAVIER
   PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN BY MID-MORNING. 
   
   SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-12F ACROSS SERN KS MAY ALLOW
   ENOUGH DIABATIC COOLING FOR FREEZING LINE TO MOVE SOUTH OF CNU WITH
   ONSET OF PRECIPITATION DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A GRADUAL WARMING BACK
   TO FREEZING IS LIKELY OWING TO LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AROUND CNU
   BY 17Z. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S FROM EMP NEWD TO MCI
   SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID AND POSSIBLE DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
   THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 02/01/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   38259425 37549456 37379504 37439618 37739732 38919655
   39639562 39539382 38899390