MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0061
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0659 PM CST SUN FEB 01 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH...CNTRL AND SERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 020059Z - 020300Z
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
   S CNTRL THROUGH SERN TX NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT
   WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. FARTHER S... AREA
   BETWEEN CRP AND VCT IS BEING MONITORED FOR INITIATION. THREAT IN
   THIS AREA WOULD BE HIGHER THAN FARTHER N IF STORMS INITIATE. WW NOT
   EXPECTED UNLESS STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
   INTENSITY.
   
   DRY LINE EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL TX WHERE IT INTERSECTS A SEWD MOVING
   FRONT...SWD TO JUST E OF DEL RIO. COASTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS S
   TX FROM JUST W OF BROWNSVILLE NWD TO JUST NW OF VICTORIA. EAST OF
   THESE BOUNDARIES...HEATING HAS BEEN LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD STRATUS
   AND ELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT HAS MAINTAINED COOL MODIFIED CP AIR
   THROUGHOUT CNTRL AND E TX. NARROW AXIS OF MARGINAL SBCAPE EXISTS
   ACROSS S TX E OF THE COASTAL BOUNDARY. THE 00Z CRP RAOB SHOWS 900
   J/KG OF MLCAPE. GIVEN WEAK CINH PRESENT IN THE SOUNDING...THERE IS
   SOME CONCERN THAT SURFACE BASED STORMS COULD INITIATE ON THE
   BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...DRY SLOT IS SPREADING THROUGH S TX AND THIS MAY
   TEND TO STRENGTHEN THE MID LEVEL INVERSION. IF A STORM CAN INITIATE
   FARTHER SWD ON THIS BOUNDARY NEXT COUPLE HOURS...IT WILL LIKELY BE
   SURFACE BASED AND SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. A BRIEF WINDOW
   OF OPPORTUNITY WOULD EXIST FOR SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS BEFORE THE
   STORMS MOVE EWD AND ENCOUNTER THE MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   OTHERWISE...FARTHER N ACROSS S CNTRL THROUGH E TX EXPECT ELEVATED
   STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ABOVE THE STABLE LAYER AS MID LEVEL
   ASCENT INCREASES AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN EXIT REGION OF
   APPROACHING JET. SOME SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH
   THIS ACTIVITY...BUT OVERALL HAIL THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK
   INSTABILITY.
   
   ..DIAL.. 02/02/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
   
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