MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0064
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0220 AM CST MON FEB 02 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX COASTAL BEND INTO SERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 020820Z - 020945Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH
   12Z...HOWEVER WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND
   PRESENCE OF A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   GENERAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL
   INTO SERN TX EARLY THIS MORNING.  ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
   STRENGTHENING/INCREASING IN COVERAGE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF STRONG
   MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING OVER CENTRAL TX ATTM.  SURFACE WARM
   FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO WWD INTO THE CRP
   AREA...WITH MUCH OF THE STORMS DEVELOPING TO ITS NORTH AND EAST OF
   APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. THOUGH SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG
   /BOTH IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS/...CURRENT AND FORECAST
   INSTABILITY ANALYSES INDICATE ONLY WEAK MUCAPE NORTH OF THE WARM
   FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY REMAIN
   TOO STABLE AND LIMIT ANY WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL.  THOUGH SHEAR
   REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD
   REMAIN PROBLEMATIC FOR ANY SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT...EXCEPT NEARER
   THE WATER WHERE RICHER BOUNDARY MOISTURE RESIDES.  WW NOT
   ANTICIPATED...UNLESS DEEP ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW BEGINS LIFTING
   PARCELS THROUGH SHALLOW INVERSION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   ..EVANS.. 02/02/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...
   
   27629698 27739764 28769748 30309627 30329440 29039401