MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0065
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0340 AM CST MON FEB 02 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AND SIERRA MTNS OF CA ABOVE 3000'
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 020940Z - 021415Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW AND ISOLATED THUNDERSNOW TO OVERSPREAD COASTAL MTNS AND
   SIERRAS ABOVE 3 KFT BEGINNING AT 12Z. SEVERAL HOURS OF 2"/HR SNOW
   RATES LIKELY.
   
   AT 09Z...GOES-10 WV IMAGERY SHOWED LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD
   ACROSS ERN PACIFIC WITH POTENT LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS 250NM WEST
   OF THE NRN CA COAST. MOSAIC RADAR INDICATED STRONG FRONTAL
   PRECIPITATION BAND 70W OF CAPE MENDOCINO WITH ISOLATED CG STRIKES
   WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION PER LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK.
   LINE MOVEMENT IS 260/30KT. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES HEAVY PRECIPITATION
   INTO COASTAL RANGES BETWEEN 12-13Z...AND INTO THE NRN SIERRA MTNS
   BETWEEN 14-15Z.
   
   SHORT-RANGE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE GENERALLY CONSISTENT IN UVV AND QPF
   SIGNAL ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. THE 3-HRLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP
   IN 00Z ETA RUN TOTAL NEAR 0.5" BETWEEN 12-15Z IN THE COASTAL RANGES
   WITH SIMILAR TOTALS IN THE NRN SIERRA MTNS 15-18Z. STRONGEST UVV
   SHIFTS INTO THE SRN SIERRA MTNS THEREAFTER. STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFT
   WITH 40KT SWLY FLOW AT 700MB AND LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM IN 700-500MB
   LAYER WILL AUGMENT IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC LIFT AND LIKELY PRODUCE
   SEVERAL HOURS OF 2"/HR SNOW RATES AS FRONTAL BAND TRANSLATES ACROSS
   THE REGION. ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY
   BETWEEN 3000-4000 FT THROUGH 18Z.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 02/02/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...REV...HNX...MFR...STO...EKA...
   
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