MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0068
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0758 PM CST MON FEB 02 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NC/WRN VA/ERN WV INTO WRN MD/SW PA
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 030158Z - 030700Z
   
   MIXED PRECIPITATION...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN...WILL
   DEVELOP/SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE ERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH 09Z.
   PRECIPITATION RATES MAY BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.10 IN/HR OR
   GREATER...WITH CONSIDERABLE ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
   
   COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO EXISTS ACROSS THE ERN APPALACHIANS OWING
   TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
   REMAINS IN PLACE PER LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS /10F-15F
   TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS/ AND 00Z OBSERVED GSO/RNK RAOBS
   PORTRAYAL OF DRY AIR BELOW 750 MB. HOWEVER EFFECTIVE SATURATION WILL
   OCCUR QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
   MOTION OVERSPREADS. ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPERATURES AT 01Z GENERALLY
   REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH SFC WET BULB TEMPERATURES BELOW
   ZERO...PRECIPITATION UPON EFFECTIVE SATURATION WILL LIKELY
   MATERIALIZE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS. WHILE LOW LEVELS SATURATE/COOL...PERSISTENT WARM AIR
   ADVECTION IN/ABOVE 850 MB LAYER WILL ESTABLISH/REINFORCE NOSE OF MID
   LEVEL WARM AIR ACROSS THE REGION. ACROSS WRN MD AND SW
   PA...PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIX
   VERSUS PREDOMINANTLY FREEZING RAIN.
   
   ..GUYER.. 02/03/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...
   
   35828122 36028226 37398083 39047961 40367960 40497847
   39187786 37217929 36088051