MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0070
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0516 AM CST TUE FEB 03 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MTNS OF N-CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL AZ ABOVE 4000 FT
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 031116Z - 031545Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW RATES TO 2"/HR EXPECTED ABOVE 4000 FT IN
   N-CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL AZ WITH PASSAGE OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND
   REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   AT 1045Z...WV IMAGERY SHOWS BASE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
   ACROSS SRN CA IN RESPONSE TO STRONG JET STREAK DIVING SSEWD ALONG
   THE CA COAST. IR CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY STRONG
   UPPER DIFFLUENCE JUST DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGH AXIS ACROSS FAR WRN AZ
   AND SRN UT. THIS REGION IS COINCIDENT WITH HEAVY FRONTAL
   PRECIPITATION BAND EXTENDING FROM NRN BAJA CA NNEWD ACROSS SRN
   NV/NWRN AZ. PRECIPITATION AREA LIES JUST IN ADVANCE OF MID-LEVEL
   VORT AXIS AND SURFACE WIND SHIFT LINE DEMARCATING THE FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY APPROACHING LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AT PRESENT TIME. 
   
   THROUGH 20Z...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS
   AZ. SWLY 700MB FLOW OF 35-40KT WITHIN FRONTAL PRECIP BAND WILL AID
   IN OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   HVY SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE MTNS OF N-CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL AZ FROM
   WEST TO EAST...WITH ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING RELATIVELY LOW
   SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4 KFT. IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE DEPICTION OF DYNAMIC
   FORCING COMBINED WITH LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
   SHOULD SUPPORT PERIODS OF 2"/HR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION REGION
   TRANSLATES ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. PRESENT BAND MOTION OF 270/35 KT
   BRINGS HEAVY SNOW TO FLG VICINITY DURING 13Z-17Z PERIOD.
   THEREAFTER...OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL COMMENCE FOLLOWING
   FRONTAL PASSAGE GIVEN RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
   /7-7.5 C/KM IN 700-500MB LAYER/.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 02/03/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGZ...VEF...
   
   34061148 34181210 34521282 34931305 35301312 35711309
   36331282 36661263 36771209 36461132 34781042 33910937