MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0072
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0650 PM CST TUE FEB 03 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 040050Z - 040645Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 1 INCH WILL CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP NEWD FROM CENTRAL/SWRN NY...MA NWD INTO MUCH OF VT/NH AND
   WRN ME THROUGH 04/07Z. ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE HEAVY SNOW LINE
   FROM FAR SRN NH/NRN MA INTO COASTAL COUNTIES OF WRN ME...A MIX OF
   SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE SHORTLY AFTER THE ONSET OF
   HEAVY SNOW.  THE LONGEST DURATION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR
   OVER NRN VT/NH AND NWRN ME...WHERE 3-6 HOURS OF 1 INCH OR GREATER
   SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIKELY.
   
   RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH HAS BECOME NEGATIVELY TILED
   OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. CONSEQUENTLY AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL
   JET...50 TO 70 KTS PER REGIONAL VWP/S...WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN
   STRONG WAA FROM SRN INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
   WHERE STRONG MID LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION REMAINS COINCIDENT WITH THE
   MAX LOW LEVEL WAA...FROM NRN NY EWD ACROSS NRN VT/NH INTO NWRN
   ME...THE LONGEST DURATION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
   04/06Z. ALTHOUGH HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
   OVER SRN NH/VT AND SWRN ME...MOST OF THE STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION
   DUE TO INTENSE WAA IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE USED FOR LOW LEVEL
   SATURATION AS EVIDENT BY THE VERY DRY 04/00Z GYX SOUNDING.
   THEREFORE...THE DURATION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER SRN PORTIONS OF NEW
   ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 2 HOURS. FARTHER NORTH ALONG AND
   40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF AN AXIS FROM SLK ENEWD TO 40 NE OF
   BML...STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ALONG WITH
   AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING DUE TO THE INTENSE WAA...PRIOR TO THE
   ONSET OF THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC PRECIP BAND...WILL PROVIDE FOR
   A LONGER DURATION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL.
   
   WHERE LOW LEVEL WAA WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED IN THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...EVIDENT IN RECENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING 2-3 MB/HR PRESSURE
   FALLS OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ELEVATED
   WARM LAYER TO MOVE INLAND OF THE COASTAL BOUNDARY AND ALLOW FOR A
   MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SRN NH/SWRN ME AND NERN
   MA...FURTHER REDUCING THE TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IN
   THESE AREAS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 02/04/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...
   
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