MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0073
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 AM CST WED FEB 04 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NW/N CNTRL OK...SW/S CNTRL KS
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 040958Z - 041300Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/ NORTHERN
   OKLAHOMA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH RATES AROUND AN INCH PER
   HOUR IN THE 14-18Z TIME FRAME.
   
   DRY LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...DESPITE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION ALOFT HAS
   BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING PAST FEW HOURS FROM THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
   PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. 
   AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN EXIT REGION OF
   MID/UPPER JET APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD 
   CONTINUE/GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TO THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/
   OKLAHOMA BORDER BY MID MORNING.
   
   MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUGGEST SATURATION/EVAPORATIVE
   COOLING OF FALLING PRECIPITATION IN LOWER-LEVELS WILL OCCUR WITHIN
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH SNOW LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
   OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS...NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATES-44
   AND 35...BY/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. SHORTLY THEREAFTER...MODELS ALSO
   SUGGEST NOSE OF WEAK MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
   BEGIN ENHANCING PRECIPITATION RATES.  
   
   WHILE WARMING LOWER-LEVELS MAY GRADUALLY CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO
   RAIN IN AREAS NEAR/JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE-44...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO
   SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE MID DAY HOURS.  PROLONGED
   PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW APPEARS LIKELY WHERE STRONGEST LIFT BECOMES
   FOCUSED THIS MORNING...ON COOL SIDE OF TIGHTENING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
   GRADIENT...ROUGHLY ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF A GAGE-ENID LINE.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/04/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
   
   34659976 36000028 37160070 37880038 38279819 37689700
   37139679 36509692 35849709 35439790 34739824 34509876 
   
   36279974 36559950 36569871 36459796 36239774 35999782
   35749822 35749905 35909951