MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0074
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1037 AM CST WED FEB 04 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS AND N-CNTRL/NERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 041637Z - 042230Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR HEAVY SNOW LOCATION SECOND PARAGRAPH
   
   HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS
   S-CNTRL KS/N-CNTRL OK INTO SERN KS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
   MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IMMEDIATELY TO THE S OF THIS AREA...A
   NARROW BAND OF SLEET WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 0.05 TO 0.10 INCH
   WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
   ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR OVER NERN OK.
   
   REGIONAL VWPS/PROFILERS AND RUC DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE WELL
   DEVELOPED WARM CONVEYOR BELT THIS MORNING FROM S TX NWD ACROSS WRN
   AND CNTRL PARTS OF OK AND KS...AHEAD OF UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
   4-CORNERS REGION. STRONG MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG 40-50KT LLJ
   AXIS WITHIN THIS REGIME HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AN EXPANDING
   PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS FROM NRN TX NWD INTO
   N-CNTRL OK. RAIN-SNOW LINE...PER 16Z OBSERVATIONS...CURRENTLY EXISTS
   JUST S OF A CSM TO OKC LINE...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING OVER
   NWRN/N-CNTRL OK W OF I-35. 
   
   12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD ON REGIONAL
   RADAR MOSAIC SUGGEST THAT AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
   NEWD ACROSS N-CNTRL OK/S-CNTRL KS THIS MORNING AND INTO SERN KS THIS
   AFTERNOON. STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG NOSE OF EWD-MIGRATING
   LLJ AXIS WILL BE PRIMARY PROCESSES MAINTAINING THIS HEAVIER
   PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...A NARROW SWATH OF SLEET WITH HOURLY
   RATES APPROACHING 0.05 TO 0.10 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EARLY EVENING ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR OF NERN OK...IMMEDIATELY
   TO THE S OF THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND. HERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 1-2C WARM NOSE AROUND 800-830MB. WHILE
   NEAR-SURFACE/CONTACT LAYER SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...AN
   INTERMEDIATE 3000-4000FT SUB-FREEZING LAYER IS FORECAST...WHICH MAY
   RESULT IN PARTIAL RE-FREEZING OF PRECIPITATION.
   
   ..MEAD.. 02/04/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
   
   36729825 37589785 38099663 38229566 37669482 37169479
   36759582 36329748 
   
   36829544 37139463 36889426 36219442 36049496 35909575
   35789692 36229703