MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0075
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0322 PM CST WED FEB 04 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TX COAST
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 042122Z - 042345Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COAST THROUGH THE LATE
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW BOUNDARY
   DELIMITING NWRN EDGE OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS FROM NEAR BUOY
   42020 /APPROXIMATELY 80SE CRP/ TO AROUND 50 SE GLS LIFTING NWD AT
   25-30KTS. CONVERGENCE INVOF THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED AND
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT HAVE ALLOWED SEVERAL TSTMS TO
   DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NWRN GULF...INCLUDING A SUPERCELL
   70SSE GLS.
   
   PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF 110-120KT UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK TRANSLATING
   EWD OUT OF NRN MEXICO SHOULD SUSTAIN NWD MOVEMENT OF WARM
   FRONT/MARINE BOUNDARY WITH EXTRAPOLATION PLACING THIS FEATURE INVOF
   MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COAST BETWEEN 2130 AND 2230Z.  IT APPEARS THAT
   THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
   FROM ABOUT GLS EWD...WHERE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE IS LIKELY
   SPREADING NWD ABOVE THE NEAR SURFACE COOL AIR MASS.  EXPECT THE
   POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED TSTMS TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST FROM
   VCT TO GLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS /CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG/ SPREADS INLAND.
   ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO SELY WITH PASSAGE OF
   BOUNDARY...SHEAR PROFILES WILL STILL REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
   ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.
   
   IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT ANY DEVELOPING STORMS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
   TO THE COAST ARE ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE... A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 02/04/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...
   
   27709727 27969759 28419742 28789705 29319638 29469567
   29519518 29079512 27919697