MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0077
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0353 PM CST WED FEB 04 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 042153Z - 050000Z
   
   A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE MOST INTENSE TSTMS FOR
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS INDICATED AN
   INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM S OF LCH TO 30SW OF
   BTR. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE MARINE BOUNDARY APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES
   OFF THE LA COAST...COUPLED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF WEAK
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH CNTRL LA...IS LIKELY
   RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS INCREASE IN ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /I.E. MUCAPES
   OF 300-600 J/KG/ ABOVE STABLE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER...FAVORABLY VEERING
   WINDS THROUGH THE BUOYANCY LAYER MAY SUPPORT SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION
   WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
   ACCOMPANY THE MOST INTENSE CELLS...HOWEVER THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
   RELATIVELY HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS OF AOA 10KFT SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
   HAIL THREAT.
   
   ..MEAD.. 02/04/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
   
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