MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0078
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0809 PM CST WED FEB 04 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 050209Z - 050345Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER/SEVERE TSTMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   RECENT SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN SHOWING AN INCREASE IN THE
   NUMBER AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS ACROSS AREAS WEST/NORTH OF KHOU. THIS
   MIGHT BE INDICATIVE OF THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER ASCENT...ASSOCIATED
   WITH IMPULSE EJECTING ENEWD INTO S TX ATTM.  ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION
   IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN INCREASE IN TSTMS
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE WARM FRONT HAS RETREATED NWD TO
   BRAZORIA-COLORADO-FAYETTE COUNTIES WHERE IT INTERSECTS WITH A COLD
   FRONT. WARM SECTOR SHOULD EXPAND A LITTLE FARTHER NWD INTO PERHAPS
   THE KHOU METRO AREA THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE
   THAN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM
   FRONT...MAINLY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE SEVERE THREAT.  HOWEVER...IF
   TSTMS CAN FORM AND REMAIN SUSTAINED ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM
   FRONT...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. 
   
   SRN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LIE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
   KCRP-KHOU GIVEN THE SUBSTANTIAL CAP NOTED IN THE EVENING KCRP
   SOUNDING.
   
   ..RACY.. 02/05/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
   
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