MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0081
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0116 AM CST THU FEB 05 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...W CNTRL/NW LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 050716Z - 050915Z
   
   ONGOING TRENDS SUGGEST WW 0004 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. NEW WW IS
   NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT ACTIVITY WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
   SEVERE THREAT.
   
   IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM/SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
   FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOW-LEVEL JET
   HAS VEERED FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
   COAST REGION.  WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BECOMING FOCUSED
   ALONG/NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT...NOW APPROACHING THE LAKE
   CHARLES/HOUSTON AND VICTORIA AREAS FROM THE NORTHWEST...SIGNIFICANT
   INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WW
   0004.  
   
   POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000
   J/KG FOR LIFTED PARCELS LIFTED MORE STRONGLY ABOVE SURFACE
   INVERSION. IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR
   A FEW VIGOROUS CELLS...WHICH MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE HAIL IN EXCESS OF
   SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...AS CONVECTION BECOMES INCREASINGLY
   WIDESPREAD BENEATH DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW...DOWNSTREAM OF CLOSED
   LOW...PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BECOME HEAVY RAIN IN PRECIPITATION
   SHIELD WEST/NORTH OF THE HOUSTON AREA INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
   
   SOUTH OF FRONT...INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO
   REMAIN INHIBITED THROUGH DAYBREAK.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/05/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
   
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