MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0082
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0508 AM CST THU FEB 05 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN LA INTO  SW MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 051108Z - 051345Z
   
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY
   OF WW THIS MORNING.  BRIEF/MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST
   WITH MOST STRONGER CELLS THROUGH MID MORNING...BEFORE SEVERE
   POTENTIAL INCREASES BY 18Z.
   
   A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ONGOING IN BROAD ZONE
   OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OFF THE WESTERN GULF
   OF MEXICO.  ENHANCED LIFT ALONG/ABOVE SURFACE FRONT FROM NEAR
   HOUSTON THROUGH THE FORT POLK VICINITY INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA IS
   PROVIDING FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION.  ADDITIONAL 
   ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING IN CONFLUENT BAND AHEAD OF
   FRONT...NEAR/JUST WEST OF LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS...FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
   CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
   
   WHILE MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN PRIMARY CONCERN 
   WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING JUST TO COOL SIDE OF FRONT...SEVERE
   POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE IN WARM SECTOR...WHERE SHEAR PROFILES ARE
   ALREADY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  AS POLAR UPPER JET STREAK...NOW
   PROPAGATING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME
   INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
   REGION.  THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH SHOULD
   BECOME INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN WARMING/DESTABILIZATION BOUNDARY LAYER
   BETWEEN 15-18Z.  AS SURFACE BASED CAPE INCREASES IN EXCESS OF 1000
   J/KG BY MID DAY...ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM
   PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/05/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...
   
   29729383 30769301 31419177 32129101 32339045 32118962
   31668931 31018933 30448942 29728968 29269002