MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0086
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1016 AM CST THU FEB 05 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MID-UPPER OHIO VALLEY
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 051616Z - 052215Z
   
   A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP NWD INTO
   THE MID-UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. HOURLY LIQUID
   ACCUMULATION RATES BETWEEN 0.05 AND 0.10 IN. WILL BE LIKELY AS MAIN
   PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHIFTS NWD INTO NRN KY/SERN IND...SRN/CENTRAL
   OHIO...WRN WV AND FAR WRN PA. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.25
   IN. OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE OVER SERN IND SRN OHIO/WRN WV WHERE
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AOB FREEZING THROUGH
   MOST OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EVENT. FARTHER NORTH FROM CENTRAL
   OHIO INTO WRN PA/FAR NRN WV...A  MIX OF SLEET AND MODERATE TO
   OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPES
   DEVELOPING BETWEEN 05/19Z AND 05/22Z.
   
   12Z SOUNDINGS FROM ILN AND PIT INDICATED A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY
   AIR BELOW 700 MB. THUS...VERY STRONG WAA TO THIS POINT HAS GONE INTO
   SATURATING THIS LAYER. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...MAIN MODERATE
   TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION BAND OVER SRN KY/TN...WHERE LOW LEVELS HAVE
   BECOME SATURATED...WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO FAR NRN KY/SRN OH/IND AND
   WRN WV. STRENGTH OF 850-700 MB WIND FIELDS BETWEEN 50 AND 70 KTS
   EVIDENT ON REGIONAL VWP/S WILL AID IN CONTINUED NWD MOVEMENT OF THE
   ELEVATED 0 DEG C ISOTHERM. THIS ISOTHERM SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL
   IND INTO FAR SWRN PA BY 06/00Z. INITIALLY DRY NEAR SURFACE LAYER
   WILL SUPPORT SOME EVAPORATION OF PRECIPITATION AND A MIX OF SLEET
   AND LIGHT FZRA INITIALLY OVER FAR NRN KY/SERN IND AND SRN OH/WRN
   WV...BUT AS THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER DEEPENS AND LOW LEVELS
   SATURATE...FZRA WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE OVER THIS AREA.
   BENEATH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER...STRONG 700-600
   MB WAA/VERTICAL MOTION WILL EXIST IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE DENDRITIC
   SNOW GROWTH PROFILE. THIS WILL AID IN MODERATE SLEET/SNOW MIX FROM
   ECENTRAL IND INTO SWRN PA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 02/05/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...
   
   38068588 39438597 40778441 40628008 39168012 38028292