MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0089
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CST THU FEB 05 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...SRN MS...WRN AL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 6...
VALID 052122Z - 052315Z
SERIAL ECHOES/SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN INCREASING FROM THE LA GULF COAST
INLAND TO IBERVILLE PARISH...THEN NEWD TO JEFFERSON DAVIS AND MARION
COUNTIES OF SCNTRL MS OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
SHOWN A TENDENCY TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS
TRACKING NEWD AT 45-50KT. SURFACE OBS AND AREA RADARS APPEAR TO
SUGGEST THAT STORM UPDRAFTS MAY BE STRENGTHENING IMMEDIATELY WEST OF
THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE FRONTAL ZONE
MAKING SLOW EWD PROGRESS. PREFRONTAL/INFLOW AIRMASS REMAINS MODESTLY
UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST WITH STRONG SHEAR...HELICITY...AND HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER RH PERSISTING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THUS...TORNADO
AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON.
..CARBIN.. 02/05/2004
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
29449185 29419258 30309147 31599011 32688845 32368723
30588913
|