MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0090
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0341 PM CST THU FEB 05 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NERN OH...WRN/CENTRAL PA...SWRN NY...FAR
   ERN WV/NRN VA AND WRN/NRN MD
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 052141Z - 060345Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE
   AREA OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS FROM SW TO NE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
   MDT-HVY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD PROGRESS TO AN AXIS FROM FAR NWRN VA TO
   NERN OH BY 06/06Z. AHEAD OF THE FREEZING RAIN...A MIX OF MODERATE TO
   HEAVY SNOW/SLEET WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS SWRN NY...CENTRAL PA AND
   NRN VA/MD OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. HOURLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT
   ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.10 IN. WILL BE LIKELY.
   
   A VERY STRONG WAA PROFILE EVIDENT BY REGIONAL VWP/S WAS SUPPORTING
   STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LOW-MID LEVEL LIFT FROM SW-NE ACROSS
   THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. LOW LEVELS PRESENTLY
   REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY OVER MUCH OF PA/SWRN NY INTO NRN VA/MD...IN
   CLOSE PROXIMITY TO 1036 MB HIGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL/ERN PA AT
   05/21Z. HOWEVER ...THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WAA...AND LACK OF A
   WLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY RAPID
   MOISTENING OF LOW LEVELS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS EAST OF THE
   APPALACHIAN MTNS. ADDITIONALLY...AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL
   CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NWD...LIKELY SLOWING WITH TIME DUE TO COOLING
   ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION. AS THIS ELEVATED
   WARM LAYER SHIFTS NWD...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LIKELY TO DEVELOP
   OVER NWRN-CENTRAL PA SEWD INTO NRN VA AND NRN/WRN MD BETWEEN 05/23Z
   AND 06/02Z.  THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO MODERATE TO HEAVY
   SLEET AFTER 06/02Z. AS THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER CONTINUES TO
   DEEPEN...MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO
   FREEZING RAIN FROM SW TO NE LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 02/05/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
   
   39037962 41308112 42677855 41177736 40007715 39007697
   37937786 38307904