MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0091
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0446 PM CST THU FEB 05 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WI
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 052246Z - 060445Z
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH WILL
DEVELOP NEWD FROM SWRN/SCENTRAL WI INTO ECENTRAL/NERN WI THROUGH
06/03Z. THE MOST LIKELY AXIS FOR THE LONGEST DURATION OF HEAVY SNOW
WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM MONROE TO GREEN BAY THROUGH 06/04Z.
STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AIDING IN BANDED HEAVY SNOW
EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF ERN IA WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF
SRN/CENTRAL WI THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
VORTICITY CENTER OVER NRN MO AT 05/22Z. SFC-850 MB LAYER OVER THE
AREA WAS RELATIVELY DRY...SUPPORTED BY ENELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
ORIGINATING FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER LK SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF THE MESOSCALE LIFT ASST/D WITH THE
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND RAPID PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH MODEST
WAA AND PROLONGED DURATION OF STRONG LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT FROM SW TO NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..CROSBIE.. 02/05/2004
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...
42539062 42749111 43449118 44299068 44738799 43568783
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