MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0703 PM CST THU FEB 05 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA...SERN MS AND CNTRL AL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 7...
   
   VALID 060103Z - 060230Z
   
   STORM MODE HAS ESSENTIALLY REMAINED UNCHANGED FOR SEVERAL HOURS
   ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE WW. FRONT HAS BECOME MORE OR LESS
   STATIONARY WITHIN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME.  COLD POOLS HAVE NOT
   HAD MUCH SUCCESS ADVANCING EWD INTO WARM SECTOR GIVEN THE SHEAR
   ORIENTATION...THUS CELLS HAVE BEEN TRAINING.  WITHIN THE
   BAND...SEVERAL SMALL BOW STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN ADVANCING ALONG THE
   PERIPHERY OF THE COLD FRONT.
   
   HIGHEST LOW LEVEL HELICITY APPEARS TO BE VCNTY WARM FRONT/
   REINFORCED WEDGE ACROSS CNTRL AL IN THE KBHM/KTCL AREAS.  TSTMS
   MOVING INTO THIS ZONE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST TORNADO PROBABILITIES. 
   FARTHER SOUTH...SRH VALUES STILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT BRIEF
   TORNADOES AS WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER STRONG IN THE LOW-MIDLEVELS.
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN OVER THE ENTIRE WW.
   
   MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK RIDGING APPROACHING THE
   AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT JET STREAK MOVING INTO THE WRN GULF.  THIS
   MAY DISRUPT THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING.  BUT...LATER TONIGHT...
   STRONGER TSTMS MAY REGENERATE AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT BECOME
   ESTABLISHED.
   
   UNTIL THEN...THE STRONGER TSTMS MOVING NEWD ACROSS ECNTRL MS/CNTRL
   AL WILL MOVE ATOP AN INCREASING WEDGE OF STABLE AIR...LIMITING THE
   SEVERE THREAT FARTHER DOWNSTREAM INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS.
   
   ..RACY.. 02/06/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
   
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