MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0094
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1001 PM CST THU FEB 05 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN LA...SERN MS...AND CNTRL AL
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...TORNADO WATCH 7...
   
   VALID 060401Z - 060500Z
   
   WT 7 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 05 UTC...BUT SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE
   AND A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
   
   BAND OF TSTMS HAS MOVED VERY SLOWLY EWD THIS EVENING FROM SCNTRL LA
   INTO CNTRL AL. SSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME CONTINUES TO BE
   FAVORABLE FOR SMALL SCALE BOWS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS BAND.
   SEVERAL OF THESE STRUCTURES ARE MOVING FROM NW OF KMSY- KPIB-KBHM
   WITH HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   SITUATION WILL PROBABLY NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  IR
   IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE
   75-90 MILES OFFSHORE SRN LA AND MAY BE INDICATIVE OF UPSTREAM
   PERTURBATIONS APPROACHING THE AREA.  LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS
   SUGGEST THAT MIDLEVEL FLOW MAY INCREASE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE
   AREA AND WOULD ARGUE THAT IF TSTMS FORM OFFSHORE...THEY WILL BECOME
   ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VLY.  RECENT VWP FROM KLIX
   ALSO SHOWS SOME BACKING IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND SRH HAS
   INCREASED DURING THE LAST HOUR.  GIVEN MODEST INFLOW OF MOIST AND
   UNSTABLE AIR...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG WITH
   THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   LASTLY...GIVEN WEAK COLD POOL GENERATION...UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
   REGIME...AND PRESENCE OF UPSTREAM PERTURBATIONS...THE
   BACKBUILDING/TRAINING SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE GIVING VERY
   HEAVY RAINFALL.  CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD OCCUR 60 MILES
   EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30 NW KMSY-KMEI-30 NW KBHM.
   
   ..RACY.. 02/06/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
   
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