MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1104 PM CST THU FEB 05 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA / MD NRN DE / MUCH OF PA  / SWRN NJ
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 060504Z - 061100Z
   
   SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH
   THE NIGHT.  HOURLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.05 - 0.10 WILL BE
   COMMON.  
   
   04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGE IN PLACE FROM ERN NY SWD INTO ERN
   PA / NJ AND NRN VA WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WET BULB
   TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING.  INCREASING WARM ADVECTION BETWEEN
   850-750 MB WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO PREDOMINATELY
   FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 07-12Z...OVER SRN PA AND NJ...SWD INTO MD AND
   NRN VA.  ETA AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
   THIS SCENARIO...ALONG WITH EXPERIMENTAL PRECIP TYPE ALGORITHMS.
   
   FURTHER N OVER THE NRN HALF OF PA...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE A
   MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET OVER NERN PA...WITH HEAVY SNOW RATES
   POSSIBLE.  DETAILED SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCY ANALYSIS SHOWED A
   RELATIVE MINIMUM IN FALLS WITHIN AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM IPT SEWD TO
   TTN.  THIS COULD INDICATE AREA OF DEEPEST COLD AIR WHERE SNOW WOULD
   BE MORE LIKELY.  SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL PREVAIL OVER NWRN PA
   WHERE SUBFREEZING AIR IS MOST SHALLOW.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 02/06/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...CLE...
   
   41817950 41827712 41267583 39507504 38417680 38077956
   39057847 39667865 40437994 41208041