MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0121
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0602 PM CST MON FEB 23 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FT IN ECENTRAL/CENTRAL NM
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 240002Z - 240600Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL/ECENTRAL
   NM OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
   WEST FACING UPSLOPE AREAS ABOVE 6000 FT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
   LINCOLN ...TORRANCE...SAN MIGUEL...ERN BERNALILLO...ERN
   VALENCIA..ERN SOCORRO AND WRN GUADALUPE COUNTIES SHOULD SEE HOURLY
   ACCUMULATION RATES FROM 1-2 INCHES BETWEEN 24/03Z AND 24/06Z.
   
   LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY AND REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA SUGGEST A MID
   LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY NWD EXTENDING FROM
   SCENTRAL INTO NWRN NM. THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS ROTATING AROUND A
   SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED BROADER UPPER LOW/TROUGH CENTERED OVER WRN
   AZ/NWRN SONORA MX. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
   SEWD INTO NRN CHIHUAHUA/SONORA MX OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...EXPECT A
   CONTINUED SLOWING OF THE NWD MOVEMENT OF THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH.
   ADDITIONALLY...THIS TROUGH SHOULD BECOME E-W ORIENTED OVER THE
   CENTRAL 1/3RD PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. DEEP
   CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST 4 KM SHOULD RESULT...AIDING IN RAPID SNOW
   DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER CENTRAL NM. IN THE
   MEANTIME...LOW LEVELS OVER ECENTRAL/NERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MOISTENED AS 20-25 KT 0-2 KM AGL UPSLOPE FLOW AIDED BY INCREASING
   PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE INTO
   THE EVENING HOURS. A MESOSCALE MID LEVEL BAND OF PRECIPITATION
   EXTENDING FROM SE OF LVS TO NEAR CVS IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH OVER OK/TX...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WWD AND SHOULD
   FURTHER AID IN LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL DEVELOPMENT ABOVE 6000 FT AS
   IT BECOMES OVERLAID WITH STRONG ELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGH
   PLAINS OF ECENTRAL NM/CENTRAL NM MTNS. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY
   START AS HIGH AS 7000 FT...BUT A DEEP COLUMN OF STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT
   AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOWFALL ALONG WITH DIURNAL COOLING
   SHOULD AID IN LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 6000 FT BETWEEN 24/03Z AND
   24/06Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 02/24/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...
   
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