MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0139
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0507 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX PNHDL...PARTS W TX
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 
   
   VALID 282307Z - 290100Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE
   DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT NOT LIKELY ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WW.
   
   
   LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OUT OF THE
   GREAT BASIN.  INITIAL SURGE OF ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD POOL HAS
   PROGRESSED AS FAR EAST AS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SUPPORTING
   INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN LINE ALONG LEE SURFACE TROUGH. 
   BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S/70S IN NARROW CORRIDOR
   ALONG SURFACE TROUGH...CONTRIBUTING TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO
   500 J/KG WITH EROSION OF CAP.
   
   LINE MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO
   BORDER INTO AREAS NORTHWEST OF MIDLAND THROUGH 03Z...WITH STRONG
   SHEAR PROFILES ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR HAIL NEAR/BRIEFLY IN EXCESS
   OF SEVERE LIMITS IN ISOLATE MORE VIGOROUS EMBEDDED CELLS. 
   UNSATURATED LOW/MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS...BUT THIS THREAT WILL
   DIMINISH AFTER DARK AS LINE VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSES INTO ENVIRONMENT
   WHICH HAS NOT HAD MUCH SURFACE HEATING.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/28/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   34480275 35750235 36590219 36910156 35730122 34800166
   33390202 32560221 32120303 32750319 33580299