MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0150
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0456 PM CST MON MAR 01 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IN/SRN LWR MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 16...
   
   VALID 012256Z - 020100Z
   
   CONTINUE WW 16.
   
   MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...ROTATING AROUND CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER
   THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AREA THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY THE
   02/02-03Z TIME FRAME.  THIS FORCING WILL PROGRESS EAST OF NOSE OF
   LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
   WARMED INTO THE LOWER 60S...WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT...UNTIL
   THEN...SOME INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOW APPROACHING
   THE SOUTH BEND IN/KALAMAZOO MI APPEARS LIKELY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT BEFORE COOLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS AFTER
   SUNSET.  HOWEVER...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...AND MAY
   PERSIST  IN STRONGER CELLS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE
   EVENING HOURS.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/01/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...
   
   42598637 42978563 42838431 42418366 41698425 41528488
   41188569 41038656 41158713 41738682