MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0213
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0134 PM CST THU MAR 25 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/W CNTRL KS
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 
   
   VALID 251934Z - 252200Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS INCREASING...BUT NEED
   FOR WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME.
   
   SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE BOUNDARY LAYER IN
   THE VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF
   EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WEST/SOUTHWEST OF NORFOLK INTO AREAS WEST OF
   GRAND ISLAND...WHERE MID-LEVEL CAP IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WITH
   PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
   
   THOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS RATHER WEAK/UNFOCUSED AND MID/UPPER
   FORCING IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...WITH FURTHER SURFACE HEATING
   CAP MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY IN SPOTS FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION.  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS
   EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH ADDITIONAL
   ACTIVITY POSSIBLE INTO PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS BY AROUND
   22Z.  
   
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MEAN 100 MB
   MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
   VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL.  HOWEVER...DUE TO
   SOMEWHAT WEAK SHEAR AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF WEAK CAPPING...
   STRONGEST CELLS MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY LONG-LIVED.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/25/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
   
   38860007 39759964 41169897 42079838 41999699 41549664
   39969692 38639759 37379877 37409980 37990029