MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0213
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CST THU MAR 25 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/W CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
VALID 251934Z - 252200Z
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS INCREASING...BUT NEED
FOR WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME.
SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE BOUNDARY LAYER IN
THE VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WEST/SOUTHWEST OF NORFOLK INTO AREAS WEST OF
GRAND ISLAND...WHERE MID-LEVEL CAP IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WITH
PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
THOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS RATHER WEAK/UNFOCUSED AND MID/UPPER
FORCING IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...WITH FURTHER SURFACE HEATING
CAP MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY IN SPOTS FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE INTO PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS BY AROUND
22Z.
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MEAN 100 MB
MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. HOWEVER...DUE TO
SOMEWHAT WEAK SHEAR AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF WEAK CAPPING...
STRONGEST CELLS MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY LONG-LIVED.
..KERR.. 03/25/2004
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
38860007 39759964 41169897 42079838 41999699 41549664
39969692 38639759 37379877 37409980 37990029
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