MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0220
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0637 PM CST FRI MAR 26 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT / NERN WY / WRN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 31...
   
   VALID 270037Z - 270130Z
   
   A LONE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PERSISTS IN NWRN MEADE COUNTY N OF RAP
   ATTM...WHILE OTHER STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NERN WY / SERN
   MT.  SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW OVER E CENTRAL MT...WITH A
   DRYLINE EXTENDING S ACROSS ERN WY AND A NW-SE CONFLUENCE AXIS
   INDICATED FROM THE LOW SEWD ACROSS SERN MT INTO WRN SD. 
   THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INVOF THE DRYLINE AND CONFLUENCE
   ZONE...WHERE INSTABILITY AXIS /500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ IS
   INDICATED.  
   
   FAVORABLY STRONG / VEERING WIND PROFILE EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION AS
   PER LATEST RAPID CITY SD RAOB AND WSR-88D VWP. DEGREE OF
   INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALONG WITH CONTINUED THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG
   INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS / AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
   SUGGEST THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA OVER
   THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  ADDITIONALLY...THREAT MAY EXPAND EWD INTO
   SWRN ND WITH TIME AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS ALLOWING DESTABILIZATION TO
   OCCUR ACROSS THIS AREA.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/27/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
   
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