MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0375
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0541 PM CDT SUN APR 18 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 182241Z - 190045Z
   
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z FROM
   JEWELL/REPUBLIC COUNTIES SWWD TOWARD DDC REGION.  WW MAY BE
   REQUIRED.
   
   STRONG HEATING INVOF DRYLINE IS WEAKENING CAP SUBSTANTIALLY...WITH
   TEMPS IN MID-UPPER 80S AND PROXIMITY MOIST-SECTOR SFC DEW POINTS LOW
   60S F. WHEN COMBINED WITH ROUGHLY 8 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...THIS RESULTS IN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS -- I.E. 2500-3000
   J/KG MLCAPE BETWEEN SLN-RSL.  VIS IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING TCU ACROSS
   ENTIRE KS SEGMENT OF SFC DRYLINE...WHICH SHOULD MOVE EWD TOWARD CNK
   AND GBD BEFORE STALLING.  ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES BREAK CAP SHOULD
   BECOME SEVERE RATHER QUICKLY.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE
   FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND DAMAGING BOW/LINE SEGMENTS.  MID-UPPER LEVEL
   SPEED MAX OVERHEAD -- ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD
   ACROSS NEB -- IS CONTRIBUTING TO 70-80 KT SHEAR IN 0-6 KM AGL LAYER.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/18/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
   
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