MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0447
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1109 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 
   
   VALID 231609Z - 231815Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
   
   CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NOW SHIFTING EAST OF THE JACKSON TN AREA
   APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL SPEED
   MAXIMUM MERGING INTO CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME EAST OF THE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING EASTWARD ALONG WEAK
   SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHICH HAS BEEN GENERATED/ENHANCED BY PRIOR
   CONVECTION...AND EXTENDS EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
   INTO AREAS SOUTH OF NASHVILLE. SOUTH AND EAST OF BOUNDARY...MOIST
   AIR MASS IS BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE WITH HEATING...AND MEAN MIXED
   LAYER CAPE LIKELY WILL EXCEED 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   GIVEN DESTABILIZATION...LINE OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
   INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON IN WEAK TO MODERATELY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT...WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL.  LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS RATHER WEAK...BUT MODERATELY STRONG
   WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT EASTWARD STORM MOTION OF 30 TO
   35 KT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.  THOUGH PEAK GUSTS
   LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE IS
   STILL POSSIBLE.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/23/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...MEG...
   
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