MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0483
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT MON APR 26 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...SE VA...ERN NC...ERN SC
CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
VALID 261842Z - 262045Z
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO SE VA. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONG/ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO
MARGINAL FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG
AN AXIS FROM 30 SE CAE TO RDU TO RIC. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS
BEEN ELIMINATED THROUGH HEATING/MIXING E OF THE FRONTAL CLOUD/RAIN
BAND MOVING EWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO SE VA THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO 1000-1500 J/KG E OF
THE CLOUD BAND...AND DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS AND MORE DISCRETE STORMS WITH SOME
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED TO ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS.
..THOMPSON.. 04/26/2004
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...
33467951 33438012 33668047 34228025 34737998 35737905
36847798 37317736 37287678 36957633 35827693 35067746
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