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Mesoscale Discussion 483
MD 483 graphic
   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0483
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0142 PM CDT MON APR 26 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE VA...ERN NC...ERN SC
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 
   
   VALID 261842Z - 262045Z
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
   THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO SE VA.  THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE
   STRONG/ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO
   MARGINAL FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
   
   DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG
   AN AXIS FROM 30 SE CAE TO RDU TO RIC.  CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS
   BEEN ELIMINATED THROUGH HEATING/MIXING E OF THE FRONTAL CLOUD/RAIN
   BAND MOVING EWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...AND THUNDERSTORM
   COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO SE VA THROUGH
   LATE AFTERNOON.  SBCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO 1000-1500 J/KG E OF
   THE CLOUD BAND...AND DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR A FEW SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS AND MORE DISCRETE STORMS WITH SOME
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  HOWEVER...POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
   LIMITED TO ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 04/26/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...
   
   33467951 33438012 33668047 34228025 34737998 35737905
   36847798 37317736 37287678 36957633 35827693 35067746 
   
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