MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0613
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1112 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN WV...S-CENTRAL PA...CENTRAL/NRN
   VA...WRN/CENTRAL MD...WASHINGTON D.C. METRO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 091612Z - 091845Z
   
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   SRN PA/WRN MD/ERN WV DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STORMS DEVELOPING IN
   THIS REGION WILL MOVE GENERALLY 280/20 KT. THREAT OF HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS MAY NECESSITATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
   
   AT 16Z...CIN HAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHED ACROSS ERN WV NWD INTO S-CENTRAL
   PA IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING /TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
   TO MID 80S NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE/. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
   INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER CU ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   
   DISCUSSION AREA IS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES...WITH ETA
   AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING AROUND 30 KT OF SFC-6KM SHEAR
   ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
   FEW LONGER LIVED STORMS AND SHORT CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE
   OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL
   LEAD TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
   ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS WEAK...ISOLATED STORMS FORMING OVER
   THE MTNS SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF CENTRAL/NRN
   VA...CENTRAL MD...AND S-CENTRAL PA TOWARD MID-LATE AFTERNOON
   SUSTAINED BY SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 05/09/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
   
   38917983 40097891 40147786 40037708 38937687 38387706
   37827753 37537812 37417894 37878042