MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0673
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0522 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN WI/WRN UPPER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 192...
   
   VALID 122222Z - 122315Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS
   THE VALID PORTIONS OF WW 192 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND EWD INTO
   ERN WI/WRN-MID UPPER MI THROUGH 02Z.  GIVEN ISOLATED NATURE OF
   ADDITIONAL THREATS...NEW WW MAY NOT BE NECESSARY.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG EWD MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH
   EXTENDED FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI SWWD INTO NERN IA.
    SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ARE
   SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY...WHILE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE
   ONLY MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KT.  THE SHEAR IS ORIENTED
   NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WHICH SUPPORTS LINEAR ORGANIZATION...AS
   IS INDICATED BY REGIONAL RADARS.  SURFACE PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET
   OVER WI/UPPER MI SHOULD MAINTAIN EWD MOVING BOW SEGMENT OVER
   NRN/CENTRAL WI FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WEAKENING INSTABILITY
   BEYOND 02-03Z SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.  DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD
   BE MARGINAL GIVEN TREND FOR WEAKENING INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND
   EXPECT 20-30 KT EWD MOVEMENT OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME OR
   SLOWLY DECREASE.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/12/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...DMX...
   
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