MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0764
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0235 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN SD INTO ERN ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 191935Z - 192130Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.  ADDITIONAL WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY
   WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF SURFACE LOW...NOW EAST
   NORTHEAST OF MINOT...IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR DESTABILIZATION.  TROUGH
   EXTENDS INTO AREAS NEAR/SOUTHWEST OF PIERRE SD...WHERE TEMPERATURES
   HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE LOWER/MID 80S.  DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO
   CLIMB TO NEAR 60F JUST EAST OF TROUGH...AND AS TEMPERATURES WARM IN
   EXCESS OF 80F NORTHWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...POTENTIAL
   FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   BY THE 19/20-20/00Z TIME FRAME...AXIS OF MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE
   AROUND 1000 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY FROM JUST WEST OF GRAND FORKS ND
   INTO AREAS EAST PIERRE SD.  THIS SHOULD BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. 
   50 TO 60 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW TAKING ON INCREASINGLY WESTERLY COMPONENT
   THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
   SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   PRIMARY THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...
   PARTICULARLY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE LOW...LIKELY TO BE
   NEAR/NORTH OF GRAND FORKS BY 20/20Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/19/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...
   
   49029497 46829635 45239727 44459974 46019953 47229875
   48049773 49029715