MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0853
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0650 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT / WRN SD NERN WY
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 265...
   
   VALID 232350Z - 240115Z
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 30S
   ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT...WHERE IT IS UNCAPPED WITH
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S F.  THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY HAS NOT
   WARMED MUCH AND HAS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. 
   
   LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HAIL AND WIND...BUT
   TORNADOES APPEAR LESS LIKELY NOW AS LCLS WILL BE TOO HIGH ON WARM
   SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...AND CIN WILL BE TOO GREAT ON THE COOL SIDE.
   
   CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A CONTINUATION OF FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE
   FORCING WITH SHORTWAVE.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/23/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
   
   43630168 42680209 42380344 42680514 42940622 44250664
   45580580 46340538 45890292