MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0866
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0154 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NERN AR...NWRN TN...WRN KY...EXTREME SRN
   IL / IN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 241854Z - 242030Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT FROM SERN MO EWD INTO
   WRN KY.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
   HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST. WW NOT ANTICIPATED
   AT THIS TIME.
   
   VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU ALONG WARM FRONT..WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY
    EXISTS.  WIND SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
   BUT ARE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS IN THE
   LOWEST 3 KM PER AREA VWPS.  
   
   APPROACHING MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND CONTINUED HEATING WILL
   LIKELY CAUSE A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL TO FORM.  OVERALL
   MASS FIELDS APPEAR UNFAVORABLE HOWEVER FOR LARGE SCALE INITIATION
   DUE TO DEEPENING LOW TO THE NW.  THEREFORE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
   AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/24/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...
   
   35998976 35989074 36539139 37369105 37829009 37938632
   37618596 36688581 36188746