MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0870
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0328 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/NWRN/W-CNTRL MO
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 275...
   
   VALID 242028Z - 242200Z
   
   INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVER NERN KS.
   ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH
   THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.
   
   AS OF 2010Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED
   TCU/SMALL CB DEVELOPMENT FROM DONIPHAN SWD INTO LEAVENWORTH COUNTIES
   IN FAR NERN KS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS
   DEVELOPING ALONG N-S CONFLUENCE LINE EXTENDING FROM W OF STJ SWD TO
   W OF OJC. LOCAL AIRMASS IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 3000-3500
   J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ONCE STORMS
   DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD RAPIDLY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS. 0-1KM SRH OF
   150-250 M2/S2 COUPLED WITH LCL HEIGHTS OF AROUND 1KM ACROSS THIS
   AREA SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE MOST
   INTENSE STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND
   ANTICIPATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES SHOULD PROMOTE VERY LARGE HAIL
   PRODUCTION.
   
   WITH CONTINUED HEATING...OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER TO THE W
   ALONG BULGING DRYLINE. HERE TOO...LOCAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
   FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/24/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   39979779 39989345 38089339 38089762