MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0889
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0217 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL/SERN KS...EXTREME N-CENTRAL/NERN
   OK...SWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282...
   
   VALID 250717Z - 250915Z
   
   CLUSTER OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD
   ACROSS SERN KS THROUGH AT LEAST 9Z...CROSSING INTO MO ABOUT THAT
   TIME.  SOME FORWARD DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG ITS NERN
   PERIPHERY...IN ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA ZONE.
   
   ADDITIONAL CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG AND N OF SFC COLD FRONT
   FARTHER W ACROSS KS/OK BORDER REGION IN BOTH STATES.  HOWEVER...WITH
   LOW-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW MAXIMIZED FARTHER E...SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES OVER THIS REGION ARE BECOMING MORE MARGINAL.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN PORTION MKC
   METRO AREA SWWD TO JUST S OF ICT-P28 AND ACROSS ERN OK PANHANDLE. 
   THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO NWRN/N-CENTRAL OK AND
   SERN KS.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SERN MO WSWWD ACROSS NRN
   TIER OF OK COUNTIES TO NEAR PNC...THOUGH AIR MASS TO ITS N -- OVER
   SERN KS -- REMAINS WARM/MOIST WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S F. 
   STRONG CAPPING EVIDENT IN SGF RAOB AND IN RUC FCST SOUNDINGS AHEAD
   OF SERN KS ACTIVITY...HOWEVER AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH
   2000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE AVAILABLE TO ANY CONVECTION WHICH CAN FORCE
   ASCENT FROM LLJ THROUGH CAP.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN
   FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWS...WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
   FLOW AND 40-50 KT SHEAR THROUGH EFFECTIVE LOWEST 6 KM. DAMAGING
   WIND AND LARGE HAIL EACH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS COMPLEX...NRN
   PORTION OF WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER MO
   MCS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...
   
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