MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0890
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0423 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/SRN INDIANA...NRN KY...SWRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284...
   
   VALID 250923Z - 251100Z
   
   BOW ECHO HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS
   SUSPECTED...WW WILL BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 11Z EXPIRATION.
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM NEAR EKN WWD TO JUST S CVG
   THEN WNWWD TO INTERSECT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ARC NEAR DECATUR COUNTY
   INDIANA...AS OF 9Z.  MCV OVER NWRN INDIANA -- AND ASSOCIATED ZONE OF
   MAXIMIZED ASCENT - ARE NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD -- WELL
   N OF FRONT AND OVER RELATIVELY STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS.  THIS
   SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE GUSTS PRODUCED BY REMAINING
   ACTIVITY TO REACH SFC AOA SEVERE LEVELS.  DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND S OF
   FRONT ALONG SHALLOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD BE CAPPED BY LOW LEVEL
   INVERSION...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS AND SMALL MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS WITH HAIL APCHG SEVERE LEVELS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY WHERE PARCELS ARE ISENTROPICALLY RAISED TO LFC.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...
   
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