MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0933
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0116 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL KS AND CENTRAL/WRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 306...
   
   VALID 270616Z - 270815Z
   
   BAND OF SEVERE TSTMS -- EVIDENT AT 6Z FROM OSAGE COUNTY KS SEWD INTO
   WW 304 -- IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES ENEWD
   TOWARD PORTIONS KC METRO AREA AND BEYOND INTO WRN MO.  SOME NWWD
   BACKBUILDING OF LINE ALSO IS POSSIBLE....WITH NEW CELL GROWTH
   EVIDENT ATTM OVER PORTIONS LYON/WABAUNSEE COUNTIES.  INSTABILITY AND
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS
   WITHIN THIS BAND -- AND POSSIBLY MORE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. 
   MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGH-RH LATER NEAR 850
   MB -- AT BOTTOM OF DEEP PLUME OF 8-9 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES --
   CONTRIBUTES TO 3000-3500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE. 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR INDICATED THROUGH LOWEST 6 KM ABOVE INVERSION LAYER.  MAIN
   THREAT REMAINS LARGE HAIL...THOUGH WITH SUCH LARGE BUOYANCY...CANNOT
   ELIMINATE POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT PUNCHING
   THROUGH RELATIVELY STABLE WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO SFC.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/27/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
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