MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0975
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0312 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 292012Z - 292215Z
   
   NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW
   EAST OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS...CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
   NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.  ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
   ...MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER IS READILY APPARENT IN RADAR
   REFLECTIVITY LOOPS TO THE WEST OF JAMESTOWN ND.  STRONGER FORCING
   WITH THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF STORMS...WHICH
   MAY INTENSIFY NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT LIFTS INTO THE DEVILS LAKE
   AREA.  ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD AHEAD
   OF SHEAR AXIS ALONG/WEST OF INTERSTATE 29.
   
   WHILE CLOUD COVER HAS IMPEDED SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
   MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NARROW TONGUE OF MOISTURE ADVECTING
   NORTHWARD ALONG/WEST OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS THIS
   REGION IS POTENTIALLY BUOYANT WITH CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG.  GIVEN
   SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...A FEW SEVERE STORMS
   WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/29/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
   
   46649958 47239956 47969967 48729941 48919848 48789701
   46409699 45979821