MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1169
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1146 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN MO....SRN/CNTRL IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 101646Z - 101815Z
   
   TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MO AND
   SWRN/CNTRL IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
   CURRENTLY APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH SOME CHANCE FOR
   TORNADOES GIVEN VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS AND LOW LFC. A WATCH MAY
   BE NEEDED.
   
   AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN
   THE WAKE OF LARGE RAIN SHIELD NOW LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN IA AND NRN
   IL. MEANWHILE...WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL IMPULSE OF TROPICAL/SRN
   STREAM ORIGIN WAS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE
   OZARKS. COMBINATION OF WEAKLY CAPPED...VERY MOIST...AND UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS...AND ASCENT/STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
   IMPULSE...SHOULD FAVOR AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZED WARM SECTOR
   CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MO AND IL INTO THE AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL
   HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF RAIN SHIELD OVER IL HAS
   LOCALLY BACKED FLOW IN THIS AREA AND AREA PROFILER DATA APPEARS TO
   SUPPORT SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION. AS ACTIVITY
   INCREASES AND TAPS INTO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...TORNADO
   POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 06/10/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...
   
   37539095 38439436 39589493 40259463 40599373 40379246
   40149009 39938784 38618814