MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1206
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1050 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NWRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439...
   
   VALID 120350Z - 120515Z
   
   ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER NOLAN/COKE COUNTY BORDER SHOULD DIMINISH IN
   INTENSITY BY AROUND 05Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS IN THE ABI VICINITY WILL
   CONTINUE TO POSE SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL FOR THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS. HOWEVER A NEW WW WILL NOT BE ISSUED. AN ADDITIONAL HEAVY
   RAINFALL THREAT WILL PERSIST...WITH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES FROM 1-2
   INCHES NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF 1-20 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY SUPERCELL OVER THE
   JONES/MITCHELL/COKE COUNTY BORDER. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SAMPLED
   BY REGIONAL VWP/S WILL LIKELY AID IN MAINTAINING CONVERGENCE INTO
   THIS STORM AN OFFSETTING INCREASING CINH AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 1-2
   HOURS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO THE NORTH OF ABI SHOULD ALSO
   MAINTAIN IT/S PRESENT STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GIVEN THE
   INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND MODEST COLD POOL THAT HAS DEVELOPED
   BEHIND THE CONVECTION. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ATOP OF THE COLD POOL
   OVER NWRN TX WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN ATTENDANT ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL
   THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...SLOW STORM MOTIONS WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   BECOMING ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL TO THE MEAN SHEAR VECTOR ALONG WITH
   THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW FOR A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
   ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH 06Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   31860165 32770101 33849982 33839856 33149860 31969916
   31550030