MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1214
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1138 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...SRN MO...FAR NE OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 121638Z - 121845Z
   
   SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING ACROSS NRN AR AND SRN MO WILL HAVE A
   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER WEST
   ACROSS NE OK...NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY MID-AFTERNOON
   WITH LARGE HAIL PROBABLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME
   NECESSARY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS SRN
   MO. MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
   AR AND NE OK WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. A
   BAND OF PVA IS CAUSING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS WRN AR AND NE OK
   ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX. THIS LIFT COMBINED WITH THE
   INCREASING INSTABILITY...WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM
   DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENHANCED BY THE
   MID-LEVEL JET OF ABOUT 35 KT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS.
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 6.5 TO 7.0 C/KM SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
   LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...THE
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL PROMOTE A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/12/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   36719266 36919116 37168999 37028946 36378950 35938975
   35439072 35219323 35439470 36039552 36439570 36909535
   36789389