MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1228
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0537 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS SWD ACROSS WRN OK AND NWRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 448...
   
   VALID 122237Z - 130000Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES EXISTS WITH
   DEVELOPING STORMS. CONTINUE WW.
   
   AS OF 2220Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
   SUMNER/SEDGWICK COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL KS...WOODS/WOODWARD COUNTIES IN
   NWRN OK AND COLLINGSWORTH/KENT COUNTIES IN THE TX PNHDL/WRN TX. 22Z
   MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON DRYLINE WITHIN
   ZONE OF STRONG HEATING AND SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE. A SECONDARY
   DRYLINE FEATURE OR CONFLUENCE LINE / DELINEATING RICH...
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE -I.E. LOWER TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS- FROM A
   DEEPER-MIXED AIRMASS / ALSO EXTENDED FROM JUST W OF ICT SWD TO NEAR
   END TO SE OF LTS.
   
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
   ACROSS WRN TX SHOULD ENCOURAGE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE
   OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF
   30-35KT ORIENTED NORMAL TO DRYLINE SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH
   THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH THOSE STORMS THAT
   CAN MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN DRYLINE/CONFLUENCE LINE INTO ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY COMPARATIVELY HIGHER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/12/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...
   
   38259878 38249565 32989819 32970115