MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1252
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0534 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SD THROUGH CNTRL MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 132234Z - 140030Z
   
   ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG
   WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
   BE MONITORED.
   
   A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NERN MN SWWD THROUGH NRN SD.
   OWING TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS ONLY
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FROM NE SD THROUGH CNTRL MN WITH MLCAPE FROM 
   500 TO 800 J/KG...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE
   OF THE WIND PROFILES ARE LIMITING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SOME DEGREE.
   HOWEVER...MID LEVEL FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 30-40 KT OF 0-6
   KM SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. STORMS MAY
   INCREASE OVER NERN SD NEXT FEW HOURS AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
   APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BETTER CONDITIONS THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
   DEEP CONVECTION. POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION... STEEP LAPSE RATES
   AND LOW WET BULB ZERO LEVELS SUGGEST HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
   STORMS. RELATIVELY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS
   MAY ALSO ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A
   MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/13/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...
   
   45779565 45189588 44639849 45709896 45829727