MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1269
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0234 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 141934Z - 142200Z
   
   THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN ND BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
   EVENING. 
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 19Z INDICATES INCREASING CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS ACROSS W-CENTRAL ND...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A FAST
   MOVING/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
   ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN ND THIS
   AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE AS MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS MT EJECTS
   EWD FROM UPSTREAM...SRN ALBERTA TROUGH. THE 12Z ETA SHOWS SFC-6KM
   SHEAR INCREASING FROM 35KT TO 55KT BETWEEN 20-03Z...WHICH WILL FAVOR
   THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION. LIMITING FACTOR ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA IS INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING/STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES COMBINED WITH -17C TEMPERATURES AT 500MB WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   100MB MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. WBZ HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN
   LOW...AROUND 7 KFT. A FEW LONG-LIVED/LOW-TOPPED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
   BY LATE AFTERNOON GIVEN MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 06/14/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
   
   45960018 46070221 47420305 48950295 48920011 48479850
   47759771 46599669 45989658