MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1283
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0707 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS INTO  W CNTRL/SW MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 476...
   
   VALID 151207Z - 151330Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING INTO MID
   MORNING...AND NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
   
   STRONGER SURFACE COLD POOL AND MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IS NOW
   EAST/SOUTHEAST OF EMPORIA AND WICHITA. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
   SPREADING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MOIST UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
   TO THE SOUTH OF OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH OF KANSAS
   CITY INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS.
   
   WHILE CURRENT 40 KT FORWARD MOTION INDICATES CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL
   PROGRESS EAST OF THE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW BY 13Z...POSSIBLY
   INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD BY 15Z...ALL INDICATIONS
   ARE THAT ONGOING WEAKENING TRENDS WILL CONTINUE.  MID/UPPER RIDGING
   EAST THROUGH NORTH OF CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST
   EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AND APPEARS LIKELY TO PROVE
   INHIBITIVE TO THE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.  AS
   CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...SURFACE COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED
   GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS WELL.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/15/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   38189559 38719534 38579405 38049331 37089357 37079542
   37419598 37849597